چکیده مقاله
Drought is an important factor of climate change and it has been defined as a period of time that the moisturecontent is less than normal weather conditions In hot and dry climate, drought monitoring process is needed todetermine and analysis of the intensity, duration and frequency of drought In this study, the basic drought factorshave been investigated in Zanjan plain based on the climatological data of Zanjan synoptic station from September1969 to August 2013 In this study, after plotting unit hydrograph, the wet and drought years have been specified using deciles index DI Then Markov Chain Model is used to predict and assess drought occurrence probability The extracted balanceprobability matrix shows the change of probability of a wet year in normal mode is maximum and equal to 0 5 Theminimum change of probability is calculated for a wet year in wet mode The results show that in the next 10 years,the probability of drought occurrence will be 0 18 per year and its duration will be 1 37 years
کلیدواژهها
نویسندگان
Mahbubeh SabziEtivand
Department of Earth Sciences, Institute for Advanced Studies in Basic Sciences IASBS , Zanjan, Iran
Masoud Saatsa
Department of Earth Sciences, Institute for Advanced Studies in Basic Sciences IASBS , Zanjan, Iran
شیوه ارجاع
SabziEtivand, Mahbubeh and Saatsa, Masoud,1393,Drought Impact Monitoring of Zanjan's Groundwater Resources, Iran,The Second Regional Conference on Climate Change and Global Warming,Zanjan
ارائهشده در
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