چکیده مقاله
The performance of reservoirs in arid and semi arid regions will be challenged under changes in the components ofreservoir water balance due to climate change This study attempts to investigate the dynamic behavior of one of the maindams of northwest Iran in response to changes in temperature and precipitation using the system dynamics tool For thisaim 10 plausible hypothetical and four potential GCM based scenarios were used Sensitivity analysis showed that thereservoir has relatively a good potential to cope with the increasing temperature, but lacks the sufficient ability to meet thedemands under the condition of reduced precipitation combined with increased temperature Scenarios derived fromoutputs of GCMs resulted in an average increase of 2˚C to 2 5˚C in temperature and decrease of 26% to 39% inprecipitation for the Mid Century Such changes, assuming constant demands and same operation scenarios, would resultin average reductions of 14, 19, 21 and 26 percent on supply reliability of domestic, environmental, industrial andagricultural demands, respectively, below the possible amounts in baseline condition 1971 2000
کلیدواژهها
نویسندگان
S.H Hosseini
Department of Water Engineering, Tabriz University
M.A Ghorbani
Department of Water Engineering, Tabriz University
A Massah Bavani
Department of Water Engineering, Tabriz University
شیوه ارجاع
Hosseini, S.H and Ghorbani, M.A and Massah Bavani, A and Massah Bavani, A,1393,Impacts of Climate Change on Streamflow and Reservoir Operation,The Second Regional Conference on Climate Change and Global Warming,Zanjan
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