چکیده مقاله
Modeling in general and groundwater modeling in particular are subject to issues of simplicity vs complexity and accuracy vs uncertainty This recognition has led to a growing tendency among hydrologists to postulate several alternative hydrologic models for a given site In this case, model selection techniques may be used as effective yet practical just in time approaches to rank these candidate models and select the ‘best’ one among them and/or attempt to construct a set of ‘good’ models However, the application of these techniques must be with cognizance In the present study, at first the steps of model selection process are briefly reviewed Then, Akaike information criterion AIC and ‘consistent’ AIC model selection criterion AICc are used for alternative conceptualizations of a groundwater model of Dehloran aquifer located in southwest of Iran The models differ in their number of calibrated parameters and observations The model selection procedure is performed after both steady state and transient calibrations while the spatial distributions of hydraulicconductivity and specific yield parameters are determined separately in steady state and transient modes, respectively The model with more adjusted parameters in steady state calibration was evaluated by AIC as the best option, while AICc opted a simple model Nonetheless, both AIC and AICc performed the same considering transient calibrated models Results indicated that the ratio of number of observations to number of parameters affects the performance of the model selection criteria considerably
کلیدواژهها
نویسندگان
Majid Ehtiat
College of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Amirkabir University of Technology, Tehran, Iran
Jamshid Mousavi
College of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Amirkabir University of Technology, Tehran, Iran
شیوه ارجاع
Ehtiat, Majid and Mousavi, Jamshid,1392,Application of Model Selection Techniques in Groundwatre Modeling,5th Iranian Water Resources Management Conference ,Tehran
ارائهشده در
مجموعه مقالات پنجمین کنفرانس مدیریت منابع آب ایران29 بهمن 1392 · تهران