چکیده مقاله
Water scarcity constrains development across the Persian Gulf islands of Hormozgan Province, Iran We quantified per capita renewable water resources RWRPC for ten islands over 1996 2023 by integrating interpolated precipitation with census based population estimates and applying three rainfall loss scenarios to evaporation 65 75% Although mean annual rainfall 106 175 mm was highly variable, no significant downward trend was detected In contrast, population growth drove an >80% decline in RWRPC, pushing all islands below the Falkenmark water stress threshold 500 m³ yr¹ capita¹ by 2023 Under the 70% loss scenario, long term average RWRPC ranged from 145 m³ yr¹ capita¹ on Kish to 9,874 m³ yr 1 capita¹ on Hendurabi; projections to 2036 indicate further declines to 87 and 5,575 m³ yr 1 capita¹, respectively A sectoral water use capacity assessment, assuming that at most 40% of renewable water is available for human use, shows that endogenous supplies cover only a fraction of domestic demand on densely populated islands, while yielding substantially higher economic returns if prioritized for industry or high value agriculture These results underscore difficult allocation trade offs and the urgency of integrated water resources management combining rainwater harvesting, demand side efficiency, and renewable energy powered desalination to secure resilient, sustainable development pathways for these arid coastal islands
کلیدواژهها
نویسندگان
Emad Mahjoobi
Assistant Professor, Department of Water and Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Shahrood University of Technology, Shahrood, Iran
Mahan Azizi
PhD student in Water Resources Engineering and Management, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Shahrood University of Technology, Shahrood, Iran
Mohammadreza Asli Charandabi
PhD student in Water Resources Engineering and Management, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Shahrood University of Technology, Shahrood, Iran
شیوه ارجاع
Mahjoobi, Emad and Azizi, Mahan and Asli Charandabi, Mohammadreza,1404,Assessment of Long-Term Changes in Per Capita Renewable Water Resources on the Persian Gulf Coastal Islands in Hormozgan Province,14th International Congress on Civil Engineering,Tehran
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مجموعه مقالات چهاردهمین کنگره بین المللی مهندسی عمران29 مهر 1404 · تهران