چکیده مقاله
In microsimulation models, the behaviours of agents as intelligent objects aremodeled through various behavioral modeling techniques, which give rise touncertainties in the modeling workflow and predicted outputs ILUTE IntegratedLand Use Transportation Environment model is an agent object basedmicrosimulation model system, in which many agents persons, families,households, firms, etc intelligently and/or randomly act and interact in acomplex ways A 150,000 150K synthetic base year 1986 household sampleof the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area GTHA population is used as thestarting point for undertaking twenty years of historical simulations 1986 2006 In order to analyze the uncertainty associated with stochastic behaviours in theILUTE model system, a 1000 independent runs using different initial randomnumber seeds are generated and tested In this paper, the behaviour of thedemographic updating module were tested by examining the variability of itsoutputs including births, deaths, families, and households across simulation runs The test results show that all the simulated outputs’ distributions are generallynormally, or very close to normally, distributed In general, ILUTE can simulatedemographic updating process with considerable reliability and confidence
کلیدواژهها
نویسندگان
Seyed Ahad Beykaei
Post Doc Fellow, Department of Civil Engineering,University of TorontoIBM Canada, Research and Development Centre
Eric J. Miller
Professor, Department of Civil Engineering University of Toronto
شیوه ارجاع
Ahad Beykaei, Seyed and Miller, Eric J.,1392,Testing Uncertainty in an Integrated Land Use-TransportationMicrosimulation Model of Demographic Updating,The 13th International Conference on Traffic and Transportation Engineering,Tehran
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