چکیده مقاله
Objectives: Rear–end crashes have rarely been addressed in the literature Thisstudy aimed to evaluate the safety effects of road and roadside characteristics onthe frequency of rear end crashes Methods: A heterogeneous negative binomial HTNB regression model wasdeveloped using crash data collected on 388 segments of Malaysia federal roads The data used in this study includes a total of 2,215 records of rear end crashesoccurred over a 3 year period from 2007 through 2009 Results: The result implies a strong evidence of overdispersion in the crash data,and hence the HTNB model was used to handle the issue The findings also showthat variables of average daily traffic, horizontal curvature, speed limit, outsideshoulder width, access points, and area type significantly influence the number ofrear end crashes Conclusions: The HTNB model, as an extended form of standard negativebinomial regression model, is an effective technique to model crash datacharacterized by unobserved heterogeneity The modelling results presented inthis study appeared to be practical tools for developing appropriatecountermeasures for remedial treatment The findings of this study suggest thatrear end crashes could be potentially reduced through some specific efforts suchas proper control of minor access to the roadway, posting lower speed limits andwarning signs in areas with higher tendency to rear end crashes, and wideningshoulder width
کلیدواژهها
نویسندگان
Mehdi Hosseinpour
Research Officer, School of Civil Engineering, University Sains Malaysia, 14300 Nibong Tebal, Pulau Pinang, Malaysia
Ahmad Shukri Yahaya
Associate Professor, School of Civil Engineering, University Sains Malaysia, 14300 Nibong Tebal, Pulau Pinang, Malaysia
Mohammad Reza Ahadi
Assistant Professor, Head of Road Safety Department, Transportation Research Institute, Ministry of Road & Urban Development, Tehran, Iran
شیوه ارجاع
Hosseinpour, Mehdi and Shukri Yahaya, Ahmad and Ahadi, Mohammad Reza,1394,Estimating Rear-End Crash Frequencies in the Presence of Overdispersion: an Application of Heterogeneous Negative Binomial Regression Model,The 14th International Conference on Traffic and Transportation Engineering,Tehran
ارائهشده در
مجموعه مقالات چهاردهمین کنفرانس بین المللی مهندسی حمل و نقل و ترافیک5 اسفند 1393 · تهران