چکیده مقاله
There is increasing interest in quantifying travel time reliability TTR for thepurposes of evaluating the benefits of different road transportation improvementalternatives Generally two approaches for quantifying TTR have been describedin the literature, namely: 1 empirically based statistical models and 2 simulation models The use of simulation model modes to estimate TTR requiresrepetitively sampling from a set of input parameter distributions to capture therange of variation in supply and demand expected in the real world The primaryadvantage of the simulation models is the ability to make TTR estimates for avariety of improvement alternatives, including new technologies or operationalpolicies for which field data are not available However, one of the challenges inusing simulation models is determining how many samples must be taken fromthe input distributions and thereby the simulation runs that must be conducted Atypical approach is to use stopping or convergence criteria In this paper weshow that this approach can be susceptible to problems of local convergence andwe show that the use of Latin hypercube sampling LHS rather than randomsampling can mitigate this problem and reduce the number of simulation runsrequired
کلیدواژهها
نویسندگان
Reza Golshan Khayas
PHD Candidate, Civil & Environmental Engineering Department, University of Waterloo, 200 University Ave West, Waterloo, ON N2L 3G1, Canada
Bruce R Hellinga
Professor, Civil & Environmental Engineering Department, University of Waterloo, 200 University Ave West, Waterloo, ON N2L 3G1, Canada
شیوه ارجاع
Golshan Khayas, Reza and Hellinga, Bruce R,1394,Determining the Number of Traffic Micro-Simulation Runs Required to Estimate Travel Time Reliability,The 14th International Conference on Traffic and Transportation Engineering,Tehran
ارائهشده در
مجموعه مقالات چهاردهمین کنفرانس بین المللی مهندسی حمل و نقل و ترافیک5 اسفند 1393 · تهران