چکیده مقاله
This study aims to address a model to improve the road safety based on the spatial and temporal features of accident occurrence The spatial positioning of the accident distributionfollows a probability density function PDF which can be estimated with parametric functions Estimating the PDF of accident would help the road specialist to recognize theaccident prone locations and improve the road safety through countermeasure decisions Inthis study, the PDF of accidents is estimated by Gaussian Mixture Models GMMs Gaussian models possess the local and density information about the accident distribution For the predicting step, the parameters of Gaussian models are predicted by the means of Recursive Least Square RLS approach Huge databases, such as traffic and accident databases, inevitably contain some noisy information Thus, a hybrid model is proposed toincorporating the available prior knowledge of accidents occurrence in the prediction process In accident databases, the prior knowledge can be defined as the most probable points which an accident had happened in earlier years and is closely correlated to its upcoming years Maximum a Posterior MAP estimator is used as the prior knowledge module The major feature of this study is that the proposed model can accurately predictthe physical points where the accident are more likely to happen in the upcoming year Moreover, because of the non stationary feature of accidents, the proposed model is online, implying that it would update itself annually The range of errors obtained from the results of cross validation on the existing data is a very good indication of the accuracy of the proposed model
کلیدواژهها
نویسندگان
Abolfazl Karimpour
Graduate Student of Highway & Transportation Engineering, School of Civil Engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology, Tehran, 1684613114, Iran,
Ali Mansourkhaki
Associate Professor of Highway & Transportation Engineering, School of Civil Engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology, Tehran, 1684613114, Iran
Hadi Sadoghi Yazdi
Professor of Computer Engineering, Department of Computer Engineering, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, 9177948974, Iran
شیوه ارجاع
Karimpour, Abolfazl and Mansourkhaki, Ali and Sadoghi Yazdi, Hadi,1394,A Hybrid Online Method for Accident Prediction Non-Parametric Approach,The 15th International Conference on Traffic and Transportation Engineering,Tehran
ارائهشده در
مجموعه مقالات پانزدهمین کنفرانس بین المللی مهندسی حمل و نقل و ترافیک11 اسفند 1394 · تهران