چکیده مقاله
This study aims to design a forward looking and resilient supervisory framework for Iran’s insurance industry toward the 1414 horizon 2035–36 Anchored in the principles of adaptive governance and data driven supervision, the framework seeks to enhance the system’s capacity to anticipate and manage emerging risks across technological, environmental, and economic domains Adopting a foresight oriented mixed method approach, the research integrates qualitative and quantitative analyses In the initial stage, the PESTEL model was applied to identify 36 key drivers across six dimensions—political, economic, social, technological, environmental, and legal—drawing on international experiences from institutions such as EIOPA, FSB, and MAS These drivers were evaluated using the Fuzzy Delphi method with participation from academic and industry experts, resulting in the selection of 18 validated factors The Friedman test was subsequently employed to rank the drivers by importance and uncertainty, identifying five high impact elements: AI based risk analytics, SupTech/RegTech integration, principles based adaptive regulation, cybersecurity resilience, and climate stress testing The findings indicate that the transition toward forward looking supervision requires more than regulatory reform or digitalization—it calls for the integration of predictive technologies, institutional learning, and adaptive data governance Together, these elements can transform Iran’s insurance supervision from a reactive, compliance based model into an intelligent, proactive, and learning oriented system The proposed framework offers a structured pathway for enhancing supervisory foresight and resilience, enabling the industry to navigate uncertainty and contribute to sustainable financial stability by the 1414 horizon
کلیدواژهها
نویسندگان
Faeze Peyrovinia
Farhad Nazarizadeh
Farhad Nazarizadeh
Faeze Peyrovinia
شیوه ارجاع
Peyrovinia, Faeze and Nazarizadeh, Farhad,1404,Developing a Forward-Looking Supervisory Framework for Iran’s Insurance Industry toward 1414,The 32nd National Conference and the 13th International Conference on Insurance and Development: 'Reimagining Supervision in Insurance: An Innovative Path toward Effective Regulation',Tehran
ارائهشده در
مجموعه مقالات سی ودومین همایش ملی و سیزدهمین همایش بین المللی بیمه و توسعه با عنوان: «بازاندیشی نظارت در بیمه؛ مسیر نوآورانه برای تنظیم گری موثر»11 آذر 1404 · تهران