چکیده مقاله
Grounded in critical realism, this study develops a design first, test next systemic intervention that integrates Soft Systems Methodology with the Thinking Processes of the Theory of Constraints Stakeholder workshops, interviews, and document analysis produced a register of undesirable effects that anchored a current reality tree, making causal structure explicit Contested assumptions were then surfaced and negotiated through evaporating clouds alongside Customers Actors Transformation Weltanschauung Owners Environment analysis, yielding agreed injections that were chained in a future reality tree and stress tested for unintended consequences A practitioner roadmap with version controlled artefacts and a one to one traceability table links stakeholder claims to operational milestones, controls, and metrics To examine whether these conceptual sufficiency links carry into measurement, a quantitative follow up used partial least squares structural equation modelling on survey constructs n = 156 aggregated to the department level, combined with department–quarter performance indicators observed over sixteen quarters under cluster aware bootstrapping The results support the design logic: rubric quality predicts appraisal clarity β ≈ 0 58 , incentive alignment predicts bonus satisfaction β ≈ 0 62 , and these attitudes relate to on time evaluations and sales margin Out of sample tests show positive predictive power Q²_predict > 0 with the partial least squares models outperforming linear benchmarks We do not claim realised implementation effects; rather, we provide a defensible bridge from participatory sense making to auditable causal design and early predictive evidence that is relevant to managerial decision making
کلیدواژهها
نویسندگان
Sasan Sepasi
PhD student of Systems Management, Semnan University
Azim Zarei
Full Professor of Management, Semnan University
Omid Karimi
Associate Professor of Statistics, Semnan University
شیوه ارجاع
Sepasi, Sasan and Zarei, Azim and Karimi, Omid,1404,Evidence-Ready Systems Thinking: From Assumptions to Measurable Outcomes with Reproducible Logic,The 4th systems thinking in practice conference,Mashhad
ارائهشده در
مجموعه مقالات چهارمین کنفرانس بین المللی تفکر سیستمی در عمل12 آذر 1404 · مشهد