چکیده مقاله
The main issue in Iran's economy is persistent and escalating inflation, with roots in the intricate interplay of monetary, fiscal, and structural factors This research, aimed at a deeper analysis of inflation dynamics, develops and examines a comprehensive System Dynamics model for the Iranian economy from 2011 to 2035 The model's theoretical framework is grounded in macroeconomic principles while incorporating unique characteristics of Iran, such as the impact of sanctions, fundamental imbalances in the banking and pension fund systems, and the monetary financing of budget deficits The research methodology involved defining variables and causal relationships, mapping feedback loops, and then calibrating and validating the model against historical data This process confirmed the model's capacity for accurate historical simulation, enhancing confidence in future results The findings indicate that single pronged policy strategies are not highly effective in controlling inflation Conversely, Combined Scenario 3, which entailed a partial lifting of sanctions, proactive management of expectations, fiscal and monetary discipline, and structural reforms in the tax and banking sectors, emerged as the most effective strategy This combined approach was the only one that simultaneously achieved sustained inflation reduction, significant GDP growth, and a notable increase in foreign reserves This study provides both quantitative and qualitative insights into the foundational causes of inflation, underscoring the necessity of a unified and coordinated policy agenda and offering a practical tool for policymakers to formulate long term, stable inflation management strategies
کلیدواژهها
نویسندگان
Fahimeh Yazdanikhah
M Sc in Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Industrial Engineering, K N Toosi University of Technology, Tehran, Iran
Nasser Safaie
Assistant Professor, Department of Socio Economic Systems, Faculty of Industrial Engineering, K N Toosi University of Technology, Tehran, Iran
شیوه ارجاع
Yazdanikhah, Fahimeh and Safaie, Nasser,1404,Modeling Inflation Dynamics in Iran And Evaluating Policy Scenarios,The 4th systems thinking in practice conference,Mashhad
ارائهشده در
مجموعه مقالات چهارمین کنفرانس بین المللی تفکر سیستمی در عمل12 آذر 1404 · مشهد