چکیده مقاله
This paper develops a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium DSGE model tailored to the Iranian economy, with particular emphasis on food price dynamics, government subsidy policies, and monetary policy interactions Given Iran's unique economic structure characterized by substantial oil revenues, large scale food subsidies, and significant agricultural and non agricultural sectoral divisions we construct a dual sector model that captures these institutional features Using Bayesian estimation techniques and Iranian macroeconomic data from 199 to Y , we analyze the transmission mechanisms of various shocks including productivity, oil revenue, monetary policy, and subsidy shocks The model incorporates habit persistence in consumption, Calvo price stickiness, and a Taylor rule that responds to both headline and food inflation Our findings reveal that food subsidy policies effectively stabilize consumer prices but impose significant fiscal burdens, particularly when oil revenues decline We demonstrate that coordinated monetary and fiscal policies can achieve better macroeconomic outcomes, and we provide impulse response analysis showing the dynamic effects of policy interventions The model offers valuable insights for policymakers addressing food security, inflation management, and fiscal sustainability in resource dependent emerging economies
کلیدواژهها
نویسندگان
Nastaran Najkar
Department of Agricultural Economics, International Campus of Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, ۱VV۹EAVE, Iran
Nastaran Najkar
Department of Agricultural Economics, International Campus of Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, ۱VV۹EAVE, Iran
شیوه ارجاع
Najkar, Nastaran,1405,A DSGE Model for Food Price Dynamics and Subsidy Policies in Iran: Bayesian Estimation and Policy Analysis,The 14th International Conference on Management, Accounting, Banking and Economics of Iran,Mashhad
ارائهشده در
مجموعه مقالات چهاردهمین کنفرانس بین المللی مدیریت، حسابداری، بانکداری و اقتصاد ایران30 خرداد 1405 · مشهد